The Intrigue of Super Tuesday

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“As the race pivots to Super Tuesday, the vast map seems tailor-made for Trump to roll up an insurmountable lead on Haley. His team has been turning up the pressure on Haley to drop out, and another big win could be a major point in their favor.”—Nicholas Riccardi, Associated Press (online at KPRC 2 – Click2Houston.com)

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After crushing 20- and 40-point primary losses this past week—in her home state of South Carolina and then in Michigan—the Nikki Haley locomotive looks to be clear out of steam.

Come Wednesday, it may find itself parked in the rail yard to undergo long-term repair.

Traditionally one of the most important dates on the US political calendar, the “Super-ness” and intrigue of next Tuesday’s flood of primaries has subsided to reveal a pro forma sense of outcome. Both President Biden and former President Trump seem destined to don the conductor hat for their party in the general election.

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What about Haley?

As reported last week by Click2Houston’s Kathy Hernandez in conversation with University of Houston Political Science Professor Mark P. Jones, “She’s [Haley] under water across the board”.

In fact, in Texas alone—a state that will hold its primary on Super Tuesday—the situation for Haley is dire. “It’s effectively 80%-20%,” said Jones, speaking to the percentage of votes by which Trump is likely to defeat Haley.

So, excuse me for sucking all the air out of the room, but the intrigue in Super Tuesday seems completely gone.

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Still, what is Super Tuesday?

This year, 15 states will hold a vote on Tuesday, March 5^th – Super Tuesday: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia. American Samoa will also hold it’s primary.

The term “Super Tuesday” has existed since the 1970s—originally referring to the last big collection of primaries. Its modern usage was cemented in the 1980s, as many southern states moved their primaries earlier in the calendar to increase their influence in the process. Since then, as a rule, in both parties, a clear front-runner has emerged from Super Tuesday, often becoming the nominee.

As the day in the presidential primary calendar when the most states vote, it is common for approximately a third of all delegates to the Republican or Democratic conventions to be awarded on Super Tuesday.

This year, Super Tuesday will see 36% of Republican delegates awarded, accounting for 874 of 2,429 total. By the time the day is over, 1,151 of the total delegates will have been allocated this primary season.

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With little intrigue remaining, what should we watch for?

With her decisive losses in South Carolina and Michigan, I’ll be watching to see if Ms. Haley’s campaign remains active by the end of Tuesday evening. Given the arguably insurmountable lead already piled up by Trump, and the prognosis for more of the same on Tuesday, it will be hard for Ms. Haley to argue that her candidacy is viable.

Mr. Trump could have the nomination effectively wrapped up on Super Tuesday, leaving the remainder of primary contests mere academic exercises.

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