It ain’t over till it’s over—Yogi Berra

Well, despite an endearing affection for the tautology of Mr. Berra—and his vast array of “Yogi-isms”—this, my friends, is not the 1973 National League pennant race.

It’s 2024. And we all know what that means.

With just under two weeks to go until the opening Republican caucuses in Iowa—January 15th—political observers and pollsters are outload wondering if there is anything or anyone who can derail the MAGA (Make America Great Again) locomotive and its conductor, Donald Trump.

Even the well-publicized actions taken in Colorado and Maine to block Trump from appearing on the electoral ballot seem impotent to the cause of slowing his momentum. Though, we’ll have to keep our eye on this as Trump’s pending judicial challenges move more into focus.

Sure, numerous times on this platform I’ve cautioned against the rush to conclusion about the inevitability of a Republican Trump nomination.

I’ve pontificated a few times about the path and prospects available for his primary contenders—chiefly Nikki Haley—to come from behind in an upset victory over the overwhelming frontrunner. And, yes, a strong showing in Iowa, momentum in New Hampshire (where she recently received the endorsement of Republican Governor Chris Sununu) and the potential to deliver in her home state of South Carolina all offer a glimmer of hope for mounting Haley backers.

But let’s be serious, despite her best efforts, can Haley truly outduel the MAGA crowd that has pegged Trump to an average of 61% support in national primary polls? Across the US, Trump remains 50 points ahead of Ron DeSantis and Haley.
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It feels like un fait accompli, non?

Yes, there are a lot of innings left in this baseball game. But with runs seemingly already scored, and men on base in the early innings, it appears that Trump has the bullpen arms available to maintain his lead.

A late inning comeback is highly unlikely.

Just before Christmas, based on a comparative analysis of historical and contemporary polls, ABC New’s FiveThirtyEight.com gaves Trump a 9-in-10 chance of securing the Republican nomination. No presidential candidate in history has lost a nomination when so far ahead in the national polls leading into Christmas.

So yes, DeSantis and Haley may only sit 32 and 34 points back respectively in Iowa. And Haley, positioning herself at the “factional candidate”—the candidate for the “No Trump Republicans” out there—may have narrowed the lead to 18 points in New Hampshire. But the fact remains that as the anti-Trumpers coalesce behind her, it is likely to have the effect of rallying Trump supporters out to vote for their guy in bigger numbers.

As we have seen, this MAGA brand of populism has proven itself a mighty political current to contend with.

In the end, nominations are all about math. And the calculus here is whether Trump can secure the delegates necessary early in the primary calendar to effectively slam the door on his competition.

By the end of Super Tuesday (March 5th, 2024)—when 15 states and one territory hold their nomination contests—we may have our answer.

Then it seems it will be up to Americans to decide whether a second Trump presidency is the preferred path to a Joe Biden reelection.

As our late friend Yogi imparted on us, “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.”

Will Americans?