“This was not Old Man Joe. This was Forceful Joe. This was Angry Joe. This was Loud Joe. This was Game-On Joe.” –Peter Baker, New York Times, March 8, 2024

Last Thursday, President Joe Biden turned many heads in the punditry and seemingly made a not-unnoticeable breakthrough with Americans as he delivered a raucous State of the Union address. His third, and most memorable, as president.

In what is being touted as one of the most important speeches to his reelection campaign, Biden laid out his accomplishments as president. He set the stage for a second-term agenda. And he provided a stark contrast between himself and, what is becoming an ever-more-apparent rematch against, his predecessor Donald Trump.

Most importantly to many onlookers, though, was the appearance of a stronger, more vibrant, and seemingly more fit Biden.

Substance of the speech aside, Biden’s combative, cogent delivery seems to have gone a long way to quell the concerns being loudly whispered about a beleaguered President who has been caricatured negatively by figurative and literal missteps in recent months.

Americans respond positively.

As reported by CNN, over 6 in 10 Americans who tuned in to Biden’s address had a positive reaction. In fact, following the speech, 62% of respondents said that Biden’s proposed policies will move the US in the right direction, rather than the wrong direction. That was a marked 17% improvement over those who replied to the same question before the speech.

In a presidential campaign that is likely to turn on independent voters and their comfort level with an aging president, Thursday’s State of the Union address could go a long way to help assuage concerns about Biden’s fitness to lead.

Also, it has to be big confidence boost for Democrats.

Disapproval and unfavourability

Lots has been written about America’s collective overall disapproval of both likely nominees, Biden and Trump.

As of March 11th, ABC News’ FiveThirtyEight.com shows an average 56% disapproval rating for Biden, and an average unfavorable score of 53% for Trump.

Where do independents go?

For some time, many experts have argued that independent voters have been “parking” their vote with a hypothetical candidate who they could see as a more youthful or reasonable alternative to either Biden or Trump. Perhaps that helps explain the relative support that Nikki Haley received. In two open primaries—which allow independent voters to cast a vote for one party or the other—New Hampshire and South Carolina, she garnered 42% and 40% of the primary vote respectively.

Going into the State of the Union address, on March 7th, Emerson College horserace poll on the Hypothetical 2024 Presidential Ballot showed Biden and Trump in a dead heat at 45%-45%.

With Haley now out and a strong Biden moment at a timely point in the race, it will be interesting to see if independent voters, recently cold to the idea of a Biden reelection, migrate back to the incumbent’s camp as we crawl closer and closer to November.